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CA Has 'Miracle' Water Year With An El Niño Winter On Deck

A strengthening El Niño this winter may run up the numbers at state reservoirs.

October 9, 2023

The Golden State is kicking off a new rainy season after closing the books on one of its wettest years. California approaches the next rainy season in much better shape than in years past. 

After several years of drought, the state Department of Water Resources said last year was the sixth-wettest on record, and with the prospect of a strong El Niño winter ahead, California's water supply could soar even higher.

State officials measure "water years" from October through September annually so that the numbers capture the full extent of the fall and winter months when California gets most of its rain and snow. Last year, for the first time since 2006, the State Water Project delivered all water allocations to the public water agencies and farmlands it serves.

In Southern California, several areas landed in the top 10 water years on record, including downtown Los Angeles, which logged its seventh-wettest year since records began in 1877.

Following several years of extreme drought, when water reservoirs dipped dangerously low, California ended its water year with reservoirs at 128 percent of their historical average — one of the best performances on record.

The San Luis Reservoir in Merced County ended the water year at 190 percent.

The eye-popping totals were aided by a seemingly unending series of atmospheric rivers last year and historic snowfall in the mountains. Late-season storms helped propel California's statewide snowpack to 237 percent of its historical average in April, surpassing the 200 percent mark for just the fourth time since 1950 and the deepest on record since at least the mid-1980s.

Officials expect they will need to drain some water from the reservoirs to make room for more rain, and will be keeping a close eye on flood management and dam safety efforts in the event of another wet winter.

The Climate Prediction Center's latest projections show a 95 percent chance that El Niño conditions will stick around into early 2024, with a 71 percent chance that it will be strong. While no two El Niños are the same, stronger patterns tend to correlate with wetter winters in California, reaching peak strength between November and January.

Newly updated seasonal outlooks slightly favor above-average precipitation for Southern California between December and February, with equal chances for the central and northern portions of the Golden State.